Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
